Independence Day

September 30 marks Botswana’s 40th year of independence. Politicians, newspapers, taxi drivers—everyone has been celebrating the advances the country has made over the last 40 years. And there is reason to celebrate, so I thought I’d give you a taste. (Many of these stats are from an article in the September Air Botswana magazine, of all places!)

At independence, in 1966, average per capita income in Botswana was less than US$50, which made it one of the poorest countries in world. Much of this income was actually money that was sent back from South Africa by men who had left to work in the mines. At independence, there was not a single government (that is, public) school or hospital in the country. (Not a bad reason for wanting out of the British colonial system!) There were only 13 kilometers of paved road in the whole country, and fewer than a dozen university graduates. The administrative headquarters of the Bechuanaland Protectorate (as it was called under Britain) were actually located in South Africa, making it the only “country” in the world with its ”capital” outside its borders. The UNDP pre-independence survey predicted a bleak future in every area of development and continued economic dependence for at least the next century.

Today, 40 years later, the average per capita income in Botswana is over US$3000, still a long way from U.S. or European levels, but high enough for Botswana to be considered wealthy in comparison to most African countries (and “middle-income” by some measures). The country has been politically stable since independence with a multi-party democracy. Its relative peace and refusal to involve itself in regional politics (and remember, its neighbors include South Africa and Zimbabwe!) has earned it the moniker “Switzerland of Africa.” There is an extensive government system of schools and hospitals, which despite its problems, offers free or almost-free universal education and health care. One article I read said that Botswana now actually has the most kilometers of paved road per 100,000 residents of any country in the world. Literacy rates are over 90% and Botswana now has 29,000 university graduates. Another article said that Botswana actually had the fastest growth rate in the world for part of the 1980s, with significant growth continuing in the 1990s.

Though it’s tempting to pin this economic and developmental transformation on the discovery of diamonds just a few years after independence, it probably wasn’t the main factor (though today Botswana is one of the largest diamond producers in the world, and the government has generally invested its considerable revenue from the producers back into infrastructure). In fact, the earlier discoveries of copper and nickel, plus some less-sexy but ultimately more important renegotiations of customs tax revenues with South Africa were the more likely early factors. The government made big investments in infrastructure, managed to avoid major corruption, and accumulated substantial foreign exchange reserves.

The economy today has not diversified significantly and is still narrowly focused on mining. Since there are fewer than 2 million people in Botswana, the domestic market is small and can’t really support significant industrial production for local consumption. Soil is poor, drought is a recurrent problem, and transport costs are high. Tourism is a big potential area for expansion but the wetlands and grasslands in the north are ecologically vulnerable and probably can’t support huge numbers of visitors. Government bureaucracy is big and getting bigger, and unemployment is an unsolved problem, as there are now more skilled graduates than available jobs. Many like to blame any current problems (especially rising crime rates) on neighboring Zimbabwe, where unemployment and political instability have led to increasing numbers of refugees in Botswana.

But really, though not everyone wants to acknowledge it, the major challenge facing the Botswana economy is HIV/AIDS, with its huge negative impact on productivity and never-ceasing demands on government resources. There’s no way to talk about poverty, say, or orphans, in Botswana without talking about HIV. Life expectancy has fallen dramatically, to the point where it is only 33.9 years today. Without HIV/AIDS, according to the CDC website, it would be 72.4 years. All of the tar roads and university graduates in the world can’t offset that kind of economic hit (leaving out the obvious and devastating social impact). The government is facing the challenge head-on, particularly in comparison to the long string of debacles in South Africa, but the way is not always clear.

Many younger people living in the cities are returning to their home villages this weekend for the Independence Day celebrations. Their parents who live in these villages are often older than the country itself. Even though challenges—and particularly the health challenges I think about most often—remain, today is definitely a day for celebration. So happy birthday, Botswana. Many 40-year-olds would love to look as good!